Film Obsessive Predicts the 98th Oscar Winners

It’s that time again! The Film Obsessive staff is here with their crystal balls, Ouija boards, and tin-foil hats in preparation for our annual Academy Awards predictions. This year’s awards have already made history, with Sinners‘ 16 nominations besting the prior record held by All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997) and La La Land (2016) with 14 apiece. There will also be a brand new statuette this year awarded for the Best Achievement in Casting, the Academy’s first such since the Best Animated Feature was introduced in 2001.

There are no certainties when it comes to predicting the Academy Awards, and this year seems like it’s poised to prove that dictum even more than most. Sinners may lead the pack in nominations, but our writers—Tina Kakadelis, Seth Lamey, Don Shanahan, Michael Suarez, Natalie DC, Paul Keelan, Christopher Rhoten, Lilli Keeve, and James Y. Lee—predict Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another to take home most of the big prizes. Even more so than usual, many of the major awards seem like they are hotly contested this year, so expect some surprises.

The 98th Academy Awards will be televised on ABC and live streamed on Hulu Sunday, Mar. 15 at 6 p.m. CT.

Supporting Actor: STELLAN SKARSGARD in SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Stellan Skarsgård and Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (Neon) — Stellan Skarsgård and Renate Reinsve in *Sentimental Value.* Image courtesy of NEON.

In 2022, while filming Dune: Part Two, Stellan Skarsgård suffered a stroke that affected his short-term memory and language. Since then, he’s been fed his lines through an earpiece on set. It’s not surprising that at 74, he gives a career-best performance in Joachim Trier’s Norwegian family drama Sentimental Value. Skarsgård plays Gustav Borg, an aging filmmaker and estranged father who reunites with his daughters, Nora and Agnes (fellow Oscar nominees Renate Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, respectively).

Skarsgård portrays Gustav in a subtle, emotionally resonant manner, while showcasing his complexities as a selfish and narcissistic human being. Over time, we see Gustav mold himself into a self-actualized person who can finally be present in his daughters’ lives, and it’s a beautiful transformation to witness. By far, Skarsgård’s performance is the most memorable piece of acting I have seen this year. His likely competition is Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, but the recognition Skarsgård’s receiving says a lot about his power and range as a performer. Adding to that, his Golden Globe win was the first one ever for a Norwegian production. In 2026, Skarsgård revealed that he still struggles with memory, so knowing that he consistently dedicates himself to his craft despite what he’s gone through makes his wins even more meaningful. — Lilli Keeve

Supporting Actress: TEYANA TAYLOR in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Teyana Taylor as Perfidia Beverly Hills, making a phone call at a pay phone in One Battle After Another. — Teyana Taylor in *One Battle After Another*. Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures.

Introduced as the ravishing and unyielding Perfidia Beverly Hills, Teyana Taylor’s leader of the French ‘75 radical group in One Battle After Another, excitingly infiltrates an immigration facility from a detail of the United States military in the opening scene. The team’s slick dismantling of security and Perfidia’s… ahem… arousing confrontation with fellow Oscar nominee Sean Penn as the villainous Colonel Lockjaw set the tone for the film’s bold stances to be satirical and topical. By the time Teyana appears a few scenes later with a massively pregnant belly, firing a fully-automatic machine gun for target practice, you find yourself in awe of her complete aura and the indelible silhouette she has created.

With all due respect to Benicio del Toro’s 13 minutes of screen time, I don’t know if there was an actor or actress this year, especially in these supporting Oscar categories, who did more with less than Teyana Taylor. She only has a little over 19 minutes of screen time, and her character disappears after the first half-hour of the movie. Yet, the specter of who Perfidia Beverly Hills is—carried forward by the daughter she birthed, played by Chase Infiniti, and the shitstorm she started—remains the burning torch of the entire movie. The excitement of it all starts with her, one of TIME magazine’s “Women of the Year.” — Don Shanahan

Lead Actor: TIMOTHEE CHALAMET in MARTY SUPREME

A man in glasses holds up a ping pong paddle towards his opponent. — Timothee Chalamet in *Marty Supreme*. Image courtesy of A24.

Timothée Chalamet seemed an early lock for Best Actor last December after Marty Supreme opened to rave reviews. Fueled by an aggressive marketing campaign that made clear his desire to finally snag the trophy, it was only a matter of time until the 30-year-old received his third nomination (the actor was previously recognized for Call Me By Your Name in 2018 and A Complete Unknown last year). Regardless of your thoughts on the film (I align with Film Obsessive’s lukewarm review), Chalamet is without question the firecracker that holds Josh Safdie’s whirlwind of a movie together.

Chalamet’s brash, fast-talking performance as wannabe ping-pong champ Marty Mauser generated instant buzz for good reason, and the Dune star’s acting chops are simply no longer up for debate. More recently, the actor has faced stiff competition at precursor ceremonies; losses to Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs and Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) suggest some indecision among voters. Though he remains our favorite for the Academy’s coveted prize, SAG’s Best Actor equivalent has historically been a reliable predictor. With both Jordan and DiCaprio hot on his heels, perhaps such a fiercely contested race will only make Chalamet’s breakthrough even sweeter. — Christopher Rhoten

Lead Actress: JESSIE BUCKLEY in HAMNET

A woman with her hands clasped in Hamnet — Jessie Buckley in *Hamnet.* Image courtesy of Focus Features.

When I saw Hamnet at TIFF, I didn’t know what I was walking into. I saw it was a movie directed by Chloe Zhao starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, which alone sold me. Then, I saw it, and I was floored by the film’s compassionate reflection on the weight of grief. It’s a film that breaks your heart and also provides a balm for a world that grows wearier every day.

It’s Buckley’s performance that sticks with you long after the movie ends. It’s the haunting way she reaches up during the final play performance at the end of the film. So much is communicated in that outstretched hand. The longing for her son who has passed away, the love she has for her family, and the intrinsic healing ability of art, all wrapped up in this one gesture. And that one gesture is just a fleeting moment of Buckley’s powerhouse performance in Hamnet.

Jessie Buckley has swept all of the awards leading up to the Academy Awards, so it’s safe to say that she might be going home with a little bit of gold come Oscar Sunday. If, or when, she does, it will be so well deserved. — Tina Kakadelis

Adapted Screenplay: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

A woman walks with a handcuffed man. — (L-r) Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn in One Battle After Another. Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures.

It’s one of those wild things that Paul Thomas Anderson doesn’t already have an Academy Award. Of course, that’s not to say the films he lost to didn’t deserve their Oscars, but, given his presence in cinema over the past three decades, if I didn’t know better, I would assume he already had won at least once before. Alas, P.T.A. has repeatedly gone home empty-handed. This most likely will not happen on Oscar Night. The two frontrunners for screenplay are in two separate categories. Ryan Coogler will most likely win Best Original Screenplay for Sinners, leaving One Battle After Another to take the win for Adapted Screenplay. I don’t see any of the other nominees having a real shot at beating this, but of course, that’s not to say any of them would be less deserving.

Then again, One Battle After Another’s script is the foundation of a film that really had people talking in the second half of 2025 (Sinners taking the first half). It’s a film of our moment, delivered by a filmmaker at the top of his game. And given that it’s most likely going to win for Best Director and Best Picture, this is one of those years, like Oppenheimer a few years ago, that a film takes home screenplay as well. Expect Anderson to walk away with two golden statues come Oscar Night. — Michael Suarez

Original Screenplay: RYAN COOGLER for SINNERS

Behind the scenes of Ryan Coogler behind the camera as Autumn Durald Arkapaw — Ryan Coogler and Autumn Durald Arkapaw on the set of Sinners. Image by Eli Adé for Warner Bros. Pictures.

In January, Sinners was nominated for a whopping sixteen Academy Awards, breaking the record for most-nominated film in Oscars history. Come March 15, the genre-bending horror seems to have the best chance at taking home the statuette for Best Original Screenplay. Written by director and producer Ryan Coogler, the film, set in 1932, follows twin brothers Smoke and Stack (both performed masterfully by the nominated Michael B. Jordan) who return to their hometown in the Mississippi Delta, where they must confront a supernatural evil.

Jam-packed with career-defining performances, numerous unforgettable scenes, and a score that will leave any audience member bewitched, Sinners is a wholly original film whose synopsis doesn’t even begin to scratch the surface of its multilayered screenplay. Coogler has cited numerous inspirations for the epic vampire flick, including filmmakers like Jordan Peele and Christopher Nolan as well as films such as From Dusk Till Dawn (1996) and No Country for Old Men (2007). Other non-cinematic inspirations of Coogler’s include the novel Salem’s Lot by Stephen King and the song “One” by Metallica. Needless to say, Coogler’s influences for Sinners knew no bounds, making for a boundary-breaking screenplay that is more than Oscar-worthy. — Natalie D.C.

Director: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Paul Thomas Anderson directs Leonardo DiCaprio on the set of One Battle After Another. — (L-R) Actor Leonardo DiCaprio and director Paul Thomas Anderson on the set of *One Battle After Another*. Image by Merrick Morton for Warner Bros. Pictures.

Few film directors had as much of an impact on multiple areas of filmmaking in 2025 quite like Paul Thomas Anderson did for One Battle After Another. As a writer-director he adapted the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland into a modern and biting, politically charged revolutionary thriller about survival and father/daughter relationships. For a project decades in the making, the veteran auteur also lent his hand to the cinematography crew, along with Michael Bauman, as he has in his two films prior. Their use of VistaVision cameras restored the look and feel of a bygone era of filmmaking to give the final chase sequence a unique and engrossing feel on IMAX screens.

Anderson also enhanced his on-screen performances from veteran actors like Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Benicio Del Toro. He also discovered and blossomed performances from newcomers Chase Infinity and Teyana Taylor. With three previous best directing nominees at the Oscars and a dominating award season so far at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and DGA award ceremonies, our prediction is that 2026 is the year Paul Thomas Anderson finally secures his best directing statue at the Academy Awards. — Seth Lamey

Best Animated Feature: KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

The K-Pop Demon Hunters brandish their weaponry. — Image courtesy Netflix.

I have mixed feelings about KPop Demon Hunters as a film. It’s a serviceable story about self-acceptance. It’s got catchy tunes in a genre that isn’t really my style. I do appreciate its animation, which feels like a continuation of how Sony Animation has stepped up its game post-Spider-Verse. I also have some bones to pick about its writing on a character and worldbuilding level that I can’t gloss over.

But even still—my goodness—this film was such a major surprise. My first exposure to it was when my mom, driven by sheer curiosity, had me watch it with her on Netflix during one of my visits home. Begrudgingly, I entertained her, expecting to watch and eventually tear apart an Americanized animated rendition of Korean culture that only paid scant lip service to it.

And yet, when the first five minutes presented an aesthetically accurate tour down decades of female-led South Korean pop musicians as its folklorically-inspired “demon hunters,” I found myself getting on board. It became completely undeniable to me that this film was spearheaded by Korean artists. And there’s serious credit worth giving to a film this popular that was evidently made by a team of creatives with real investment in seeing modern Korean culture and music faithfully represented on the world stage.

For myself, as a Korean-American filmgoer and writer, the recent wave of Korean-led media gaining international recognition, initiated by Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite, has been a real point of fascination and pride. Seven years after that film’s release, KPop Demon Hunters—especially given that it’s swept several major animated-feature awards these past few months—looks to be the next link in that chain, faithfully presenting Korean music history, KPop as a genre, and Korean spiritual folklore in an accessible, broadly enjoyable package. I can’t deny what a powerful thing it is, regardless of its overall quality, for me to watch a story like this garner mainstream acclaim. — James Y. Lee

Best Picture: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Leonardo DiCaprio in *One Battle After Another*. Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is a sleek, smooth, and slippery film detailing the hidden political systems that shape the modern world. Beneath its chase sequences, conspiracies, and shifting allegiances lies the simple but resonant idea that power rarely announces itself. Cloaked and sheathed, it moves instead through coded language, aliases, secret corridors, and unseen networks, quietly organizing the rhythms of everyday life. As arguably the most reliable auteur of his generation, Anderson turns this timely premise into a visual spectacle. The camera repeatedly descends into basements, tunnels, banks, and service ducts, then rises onto rooftops and highways, mapping a world defined by thresholds and passageways. Institutions that appear stable (hospitals, convents, apartment complexes, suburban homes) reveal themselves as nodes in larger clandestine circuits of resistance and repression, an insight the film formally conveys within the patterned and connective thematic tissue of its many embedded motifs.

All of this culminates in an exhilarating final car chase, cast upon an open, rolling highway—a transposition of the film’s subterranean logic onto a visible plane. The terrain, rendered legible and manipulable, demonstrates how secrecy and obfuscation can flow even through the surface-level optics of perception, folded into the very act of seeing. Here, the pursuit depends less on the conventional tropes of hairpin turns, high-octane acceleration, narrowly avoided collisions, or sheer breakneck speed, and more on vision, vantage, and the calculated reckoning of insurgent intelligence.

By the time the closing coda reveals a quiet shortwave transmission shared among initiates, Anderson has made a sweeping, entertaining manifesto that taps into a vital pulse of contemporary life, capturing the sense that revolutionary forces must unfold through elaborate networks in order to thwart and disrupt the panoptical surveillance of the state, which itself operates in surreptitious cabals and tactical privacy. An expansive, assured masterwork teeming with style, teeth, and preternaturally topical edginess, it is exactly the kind of filmmaking we should be honoring as the year’s Best Picture. — Paul Keelan